No Way He Makes It...

My kids are pretty good at making predictions. I think it is a skill that many kids become fairly adept at, largely because they do so on a daily basis. The real trouble comes in supporting our predictions with evidence. We've gone over this process before. It goes something like this...

Me: Ok, so we've established the problem to be that he is taking a shot from half court to win a million dollars. What do you think will happen?

Student: Well he makes it obviously.

Me: Fantastic! He makes the shot, he wins the million dollars. What makes you think that? It is a long distance shot.

Student: Well, all kids stories end happily.

Right! I forgot! Most kids stories to that point tend to end relatively happily. Then it becomes a matter of teasing out the other details... he wasn't good until he got a coach. He really wants to make it, and he is listening to his coach... often coaches make you better, hence you'll be more likely to make it than before!

If you've read the blog before, I am a fan of Dan Meyer's WCYDWT (what can you do with this). The idea is to take banal problems, and bring them to life using the "technology that is ubiquitous." Often problems lack relevance or provide too much information, eliminating the need for creative problem solving. He uses this for math, but I'm going to use it to illustrate predictions in reading and how to write those out with evidence. 

We are going to watch the final 10.8 seconds of the 2008 National Championship Game with the title of the video out of sight (Kansas vs. Memphis.. linked above). We'll start with what information we already have: 2 point game, guy from the leading team at the foul line about to shoot 2 shots. What are the possible outcomes of this situation? He could make both, miss both, or make 1 of 2. Now what information might you need to make a prediction? We'll look at how he has done on the season, and how he has done in this game. From there we'll make some guesses.

After that we'll watch until 4 seconds to go. The 3 point shot is about to go off. We'll repeat the process. What could happen? What information do you need? We're dealing with real life, not simply a kids book. In this case the statistics (if looked at longitudinally) actually lead towards the actual result, the making of the 3 point shot. He had been awful to that point, yet making the 3 pointer would bring he really close to his average, something they have worked on before. It doesn't matter what the prediction is, as long as they reference the evidence leading in that direction... we're going beyond "Well, I just think so."

Where does it go from there? We then apply that to modified passages on 3 settlements- Roanoke, Jamestown, and Plymouth. They don't include the last 2-3 paragraphs that tell how it ended for the settlement (and few have the background knowledge to know the outcome). They'll make predictions, support it with evidence, and rank each from most to least likely to be successful. We'll post them on our online discussion board, and have a virtual (as well as in-class) debate about success. I'm excited for it.